Posted by : Krati Garg Are companies working in agriculture ready with their climate change strategy?
Caspian Debt is India’s leading debt provider to small and medium enterprises (SMEs) working in the food and agriculture sector. So, it is important when the founders of all our portfolio companies started telling us that “We are seeing unexpected changes in rainfall and temperatures.” The monsoon season has been starting and ending late with extreme rainfall towards the end of the season, as an example. In response, companies are trying to procure better seeds, they are working with farmers to improve the texture of the soil, they are working with weather data providers to provide weather predictions to their field staff and farmers.
To effectively tailor their responses, companies could do with better data and more structured response mechanisms. Better data needs to answer two types of questions. First the macro question: over this decade, in the geographical areas they operate in what are the likely climatic trends? Second, the micro question: what are the weather predictions over shorter time frames of a season, month, or weeks? In this article, we focus on the availability of the first type of data and how it can be used by SMEs working in the sector.
Climate projections are subject to uncertainty, but entrepreneurs know how to handle that
Climate systems are incredibly complex, and projections are subject to margins of error. But there is already some strong consensus. The important thing to recognize is that in climate change several of the broad trends are already observable, though the timing and intensity of actual events and impacts are unpredictable. It is possible, therefore, to create a set of scenarios and plan around them. This should not be difficult for entrepreneurial organizations who already have the capability to process a high level of uncertainty. We think companies can stock of the climate risks they could be facing and discuss how to address them as a part of the strategic planning process.
How do you go about collecting climate change data?
As entrepreneurs know the best way is to collect data and make inferences based on data available. Climate change data is available at the national level and one book that you must consult is the Assessment of Climate Change over the Indian Region, published last year by the Centre for Climate Change Research at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune. The book has summarized key past trends and also modelled climate change projections for various scenarios. To understand what risks your business is likely to face in the coming decade, we recommend that you first look carefully at the past trends. The book makes projections for both high emissions scenarios (where the world economies are unable to achieve “net zero” goals) and intermediate scenarios (when the emissions are brought down to “net zero” by about 2050). The book also makes climate projections for both long term (end of the century) and intermediate terms (middle of the century).
For state-level trends, you must consult the Risk and Vulnerability Assessment of Indian Agriculture to Climate Change published by ICAR-Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture (CRIDA). This report (published in 2019), identifies high-risk districts. For every district, they have collected data about both observed past trends of climate hazards and the likely future climate hazards. You can see how the district where you operate in was subject to climate hazards in the past (and correlate that with your experience). You can also see examine how future climate change is likely to affect your district. Depending on the growing season and needs of your crop you can examine the climate change trends across various parameters. For example you can see how the maximum or the minimum temperature is likely to change. Or you can see the likely change in the number of cold days in the winter months or the amount of rain in June.
The other report that you can consult to get data for the districts that you operate in is the Climate Vulnerability Assessment for Adaptation Planning , published by the Department of Science and Technology. The extent to which communities in a district are vulnerable to climate change is a function of several socio-economic criteria (think of how you can be susceptible to disease based on your lifestyle and habits). The report has identified the vulnerability of various states and various districts within the state. The factors considered include agricultural factors (such as the area under rainfed agriculture, yield variability of food grains) but also non-agricultural factors (such as health infrastructure and female literacy rate).
Caspian Debt brings you an opportunity to interact directly with India’s top climate scientists
On July 22, 2021, Caspian Debt brings you a webinar to interact directly with the three climate scientists who have contributed to the above publications: Dr. Chirag Dhara, Dr. Rama Rao, and Dr. Shyamasree Dasgupta. Also joining will be the CEO of Skymet, which provides real-time weather prediction and air quality data, and Avishek Gupta, the head of Caspian Debt.
Do join the panel discussion and ask the panel the following questions:
- What are the patterns they are observing of the Indian monsoon?
- What are the patterns they are seeing for floods and droughts?
- Which are the states and districts vulnerable to climate risk?
- What should you be doing to adapt to climate change?
- What does this mean for your ability to raise capital and grow your business?
